Geopolitical relief, economic indicators, and earnings season may shape market trajectory this week
The Indian stock market is poised for a critical week ahead as investors await a confluence of triggers — ranging from easing geopolitical tensions with Pakistan to crucial domestic macroeconomic data and Q4 corporate earnings timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
Investor sentiment is expected to improve after India and Pakistan agreed to halt military actions across land, air, and sea, following days of cross-border drone and missile strikes. “This de-escalation removes a key overhang on investor sentiment and is likely to be seen as a major positive by financial markets,” said Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities Ltd.
However, all eyes will also be on Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who reversed their recent buying trend by selling on Friday. Market watchers say their behaviour will be influenced by upcoming data points and earnings reports.
Analysts suggest the India-Pakistan ceasefire deal could lift market mood, while inflation data and corporate results may drive stock-specific momentum.
Ajit Mishra, SVP, Research at Religare Broking Ltd, noted that this week’s key triggers include the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI), Wholesale Price Index (WPI), and trade data. “Geopolitical developments, particularly the Pakistan ceasefire, and macro indicators will shape the near-term outlook,” he said.
Major companies such as Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, GAIL, Hero MotoCorp, Tata Motors, Lupin, and BHEL are scheduled to release their Q4 results — a crucial factor in sector-wise stock movement.
Despite last week’s market correction — with the BSE Sensex falling 1,047.52 points (1.30%) and the NSE Nifty slipping 338.7 points (1.39%) — analysts say the long-term picture remains positive. Foreign investors have already infused over ₹14,000 crore into Indian equities in May, riding on strong fundamentals and upbeat global cues.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, attributed the resilience to consistent FII inflows and record GST collections in April. “These factors indicate a robust economic foundation,” he added.
Puneet Singhania of Master Trust Group believes stock-specific movement will dominate due to earnings season. Meanwhile, wealth platform Dezerv’s Co-Founder, Vaibhav Porwal, advised investors to maintain a long-term view. “The Indian equity story is fundamentally strong. There’s little reason to worry,” he said.
Going forward, market sentiment will hinge on domestic inflation figures, which could influence rate expectations and sectoral outlooks.
