A joint study by the universities of Hyderabad, India, and Exeter, UK, reveal for the first time ever that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Decadal prediction can forecast weather changes and predictions 5-20 years in advance.
The prospects of predicting weather 5-20 years in advance has now become a very real possibility.
And the basis for this claims rests solidly on the results of a newly released and collaborative research study done by the University of Hyderabad and the University of Exeter, UK.
The research team’s findings reveal for the first time ever that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Decadal prediction can forecast weather changes and predictions several years in advance.
Decadal prediction is a newly emerging field for forecasting climate for 5-20 years. The information will help stakeholders in strategising and decision-making well in advance of their events.
Wouldn’t that be just wonderful! Imagine what that would mean for outdoor sports, especially cricket. Nobody would have to go through the uncertainties and miseries that occur when rain washes out play. But then again perhaps, this is stretching things a bit too far on the non-serious side. But who knows, anything is possible.
But certainly it would prove to be a great boon in predicting cyclones, floods, typhoons and storms, preventing a tremendous loss to lives and property. It would definitely ensure safer and smoother sea and air travel.
Anyway, back to the basics. Climate scientists have been trying to forecast various climate processes with a few years lead. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an important climate driver that affects global climate. Its positive factors are dependent upon normal sea surface temperature.
Decadal prediction is a newly emerging field for forecasting climate for 5-20 years. The information will help stakeholders in strategising and decision-making well in advance of their events.
Other major factors that have come to light in the study are that subsurface ocean signals in the Southern Ocean provide clues for predicting the IOD. Also the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical pacific, is regarded as a crucial climate driver
For the research, UoH Prof. K. Ashok, his PhD student Feba Francis, and Prof. Satish Shetye, former chair professor of Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences; collaborated with University of Exeter’s Prof. Mat Collins.
“A strong IOD is associated with meteorological events like heavy rainfall in India, while indicating drought or flood-like events in countries like Australia. This decadal prediction model though is still at a nascent stage”, says Prof Ashok.
He also believes that this type of weather predictions would be predominantly feasible in the mid=latitude regions of the earth. On the contrary the outcome of such predictions would be rather poor in the tropical regions of the planets.
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