Technically, USD/INR continues to trade just above its 20-day moving average, with support near 90.94 and resistance around 91.35, indicating a steady but cautious outlook
The Indian Rupee remained largely unchanged against the US Dollar on Thursday, with the USD/INR pair moving within a narrow band near 91.00. Investors are waiting for clearer signals on United States trade policy, which continues to create uncertainty in global currency markets.
Recent comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer suggested that tariffs could be raised to 15 per cent or more on certain countries, up from the current 10 per cent global levy. The move follows action by US President Donald Trump, who introduced the 10 per cent tariff after the Supreme Court of the United States struck down parts of his earlier trade measures. This policy uncertainty has weighed on the US Dollar, with the Dollar Index hovering around 97.50.
Markets also expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75 per cent in its upcoming meetings, adding to the cautious tone in currency trading
Attention is now turning to US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. Any outcome that shifts oil prices could directly affect the Rupee, as India depends heavily on imported crude oil.
On the domestic front, India’s fourth-quarter GDP is expected to grow by 7.2 per cent year-on-year, slightly slower than the previous quarter’s 8.2 per cent. Meanwhile, foreign investors have shown renewed confidence in Indian equities. In February, Foreign Institutional Investors turned net buyers, purchasing shares worth ₹4,361.57 crore after months of selling. This improvement follows easing trade tensions between Washington and New Delhi, including a reduction in US tariffs on certain Indian imports.
