Surge driven by short-term market dynamics and price arbitrage, not structural shift, say analysts
NEW DELHI: India’s crude oil imports from the United States soared to their highest level since 2022 in October, reflecting opportunistic buying by Indian refiners rather than a fundamental shift in sourcing strategy — even as Washington continues to pressure New Delhi over its purchase of discounted Russian oil, reported timesofindia.indiatimes.com.
Latest data from global analytics firm Kpler shows US crude imports rising to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd), with October likely closing near 575,000 bpd — the strongest monthly inflow in nearly three years. Based on US export trends, Kpler estimates November shipments at around 400,000–450,000 bpd, significantly higher than the year-to-date average of 300,000 bpd.
The surge, however, is driven more by market conditions than geopolitics.
According to Kpler analyst Sumit Ritolia, the increase was spurred by “a strong arbitrage opportunity, a wider Brent–WTI price spread, and weak Chinese demand,” which made American cargoes highly competitive for Indian refiners on a delivered-cost basis.
He further noted that given the 45–55 day voyage time for US crude shipments, most cargoes were booked prior to the latest US sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil, indicating that the spike is likely temporary.
“While the surge highlights India’s refining flexibility and ability to capture short-term market advantages, the rise is arbitrage-led, not structural,” Ritolia said, adding that higher freight costs, longer travel times, and WTI’s lighter yield composition would constrain future growth in imports.
Still, the growing US share in India’s crude mix holds strategic significance, aligning with New Delhi and Washington’s broader goal to narrow the US trade deficit and push bilateral trade toward the $500 billion target by 2030.
