A study calls for urgent policy action to expand air service agreements, warning that without changes, the India–UAE air corridor could become increasingly constrained, limiting both travel and economic potential
Air travel between India and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) is expected to grow sharply over the next decade, but a new study warns that existing capacity limits could leave millions of passengers without seats by 2035.
According to a report by Tourism Economics, commissioned by Etihad Airways, passenger traffic on the India–UAE corridor could reach nearly 25 million annually by 2035. However, if current capacity rules remain unchanged, around 10.8 million passengers a year—almost 27 per cent of total demand—may not be able to travel. Between 2026 and 2035, this could result in more than 54 million passengers going unserved.
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The Abu Dhabi–India segment is already nearing saturation. Airlines based in Abu Dhabi are limited to a fixed number of weekly seats under the bilateral air services agreement, and these are almost fully utilised, with high occupancy levels throughout the year
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The study notes that the shortage is not due to weak demand but to regulatory and operational constraints
India’s strong economic growth and rising middle class are driving the surge in travel. The number of households able to afford air travel has increased significantly over the past decade, and overall aviation demand is expected to grow steadily in the coming years. The UAE remains India’s most important international aviation partner, accounting for a large share of international passenger traffic.
The report also highlights the economic impact of limited connectivity. Current air links already support millions of travellers, billions in GDP, and significant employment and tax revenues. Expanding capacity could further boost tourism, trade, investment, and jobs, while also lowering airfares through increased competition.
Tier 2 Indian cities such as Pune, Goa, and Lucknow are identified as missed opportunities, as they lack direct connectivity to Abu Dhabi. Adding these cities could unlock regional tourism and business growth.
