“The central bank should intervene to ensure that a falling currency does not eclipse India’s fundamentals.”
— Abheek Barua, HDFC Bank Chief Economist
The Reserve Bank of India may need to find ways to replenish its foreign exchange reserves such as encouraging non-resident Indians to deposit more funds, as it looks to stabilize a depreciating rupee, HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abheek Barua said.
The Indian currency has weakened 9.5% so far this year, with the central bank defending the rupee via dollar sales that have depleted its forex reserves to $545 billion from the peak of $642 billion a year ago. “The central bank should intervene to ensure that a falling currency does not eclipse India’s fundamentals,” Barua wrote in a note recently.
While there might be some benefits of a depreciated currency in closing the trade gap, the damage to the capital account in terms of reduced confidence of investors will outweigh this benefit, he said.
“NRIs are sensitive to India’s robust fundamentals and could be persuaded to deposit their dollars in India at attractive rates.”
— Abheek Barua
According to Barua, the central bank may need to think of ways to bulk up its forex reserves, should the pool shrink to near $500 billion in the coming months. “More capital is needed at this stage to stabilize the rupee and enable the RBI to replenish its reserves chest,” he said.
It may be pointed out that in July, the RBI had allowed banks to raise foreign currency non-resident deposits at higher costs and permitted foreign investors to buy shorter term local debt as a way to encourage more inflows. The measure had only helped marginally, analysts say.
It may be time for the central bank to ready other options such as those in 2013 when the rupee came under pressure due to the US Federal Reserve announcing plans to taper bond purchases. It may be time to think yet again of the taper tantrum playbook, subsidize forwards and get lumpy non-resident deposits in, Barua said. “NRIs are sensitive to India’s robust fundamentals and could be persuaded to deposit their dollars in India at attractive rates,” he pointed out.
*********************************************************************
Readers
These are extraordinary times. All of us have to rely on high-impact, trustworthy journalism. And this is especially true of the Indian Diaspora. Members of the Indian community overseas cannot be fed with inaccurate news.
Pravasi Samwad is a venture that has no shareholders. It is the result of an impassioned initiative of a handful of Indian journalists spread around the world. We have taken the small step forward with the pledge to provide news with accuracy, free from political and commercial influence. Our aim is to keep you, our readers, informed about developments at ‘home’ and across the world that affect you.
Please help us to keep our journalism independent and free.
In these difficult times, to run a news website requires finances. While every contribution, big or small, will makes a difference, we request our readers to put us in touch with advertisers worldwide. It will be a great help.
For more information: pravasisamwad00@gmail.com