Nearly one million Indians account for about 79 per cent of the employment-based green card backlog, according to a new analysis
Indian professionals seeking permanent residency in the United States are facing an exceptionally long wait, with a new analysis estimating that those entering the employment-based EB-2 queue in 2026 could face a potential 179-year delay.
The estimate comes from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP), which analysed the US employment-based immigration backlog. It is a projection rather than an official government waiting time and could change with visa availability, changes in demand, applicants leaving the queue and possible amendments to US immigration law.
The scale of the backlog is particularly significant for Indian nationals. NFAP estimates that 996,599 Indians, including dependants, were in the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 backlog as of December 2025. That represented about 79 per cent of the total estimated employment-based backlog of 1.26 million people.
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The projected delays vary sharply by category
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For an Indian applicant whose labour certification or employment-based petition was filed in January 2026 or later, NFAP estimates a potential wait of four to five years under EB-1, 179 years under EB-2 and 38 years under EB-3.
The problem stems largely from the mismatch between demand and statutory visa limits. Employment-based immigration is subject to annual limits as well as country-based restrictions, leaving countries such as India with substantially more applicants than available visa numbers.
The US State Department’s September 2026 Visa Bulletin shows the continuing backlog. India’s EB-2 category is listed as unavailable for final action, while the EB-3 final action date is January 1, 2014 and EB-1 is October 15, 2022.
For Indian technology professionals, engineers, researchers and other skilled workers, the backlog can mean remaining on temporary immigration status for years despite having US employment and employer sponsorship.
NFAP has warned that without changes to immigration law or visa availability, the overall employment-based backlog could exceed two million by 2040.
