Rising fertiliser costs and supply disruptions could affect Indian farmers if regional tensions persist, analysts warn
Escalating tensions in the Middle East are emerging as a significant concern for India’s agriculture sector, with experts warning that prolonged conflict could disrupt fertiliser supplies, increase input costs and put pressure on food production.
A recent analysis by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) says India’s agricultural sector remains closely linked to developments in the Gulf region because of its dependence on imported fertilisers and energy. Any disruption to shipping routes or supply chains could have far-reaching consequences for farmers and consumers alike.
India imports a substantial share of its fertiliser requirements, including phosphatic and potassic nutrients, while natural gas from the Gulf is a key raw material for domestic urea production. Rising energy prices caused by geopolitical instability could increase fertiliser manufacturing costs and eventually raise cultivation expenses for farmers.
-
The report notes that disruptions to maritime trade through strategic routes in the region, including the Strait of Hormuz, could delay imports of fertilisers and agricultural inputs
-
Such delays during critical sowing periods may affect crop productivity and farm incomes if supplies are not restored quickly
Higher freight costs and volatility in global commodity markets could also contribute to inflation in food prices. While India has strengthened domestic food grain production and maintains buffer stocks of key staples, experts believe sustained geopolitical uncertainty may still place pressure on agricultural supply chains.
The report suggests that India should reduce its long-term vulnerability by diversifying fertiliser import sources, expanding domestic production, improving nutrient-use efficiency and promoting sustainable farming practices. Strengthening strategic reserves and investing in alternative technologies are also seen as important steps to improve resilience.
Despite the risks, analysts note that India’s agricultural system is better prepared than in previous decades due to policy reforms, improved procurement systems and greater emphasis on self-reliance. However, they caution that continued instability in the Middle East could test the sector’s resilience and require timely policy interventions to protect farmers and ensure food security.
