Monsoon has been following ‘unusual’ trajectory this year
Chandigarh: Blame it on climate change or cyclone Biporjoy but India’s most anticipated weather phenomenon—the Southwest Monsoon—has been behaving somewhat off the mark this year, a special report by Vibha Sharma in The Tribune, Chandigarh, says.
For the first time since June 21, 1961, both Delhi and Mumbai received the season’s first showers on Sunday, June 25, according to the IMD. While it was two days ahead of schedule in the national capital, its arrival over the country’s financial capital was almost two weeks late.
Now the wait is on for the Southwest Monsoon to cover the entire country. As of now, the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) is passing through Porbandar, Ahmedabad, Udaipur, Narnaul, Firozpur.
Source at the IMD say conditions are favourable for further advance of the SW monsoon into some more parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, remaining parts of Haryana and Punjab over the next two days.
Meanwhile, the activity over Haryana, Chandigarh and Delhi has been ‘vigorous’, a term used when recorded rainfall is more than ‘normal’ and widespread.
Normally, monsoon arrives over Kerala by June 1, Mumbai by June 11, and Delhi by June 27. It covers the entire country by July 8.
This year, however, it arrived in Kerala on June 8—eight days later than the usual onset date.
Unusual trajectory
Monsoons, the lifeblood of India’s agriculture and economy, follows a set trajectory most of the time. The four-month June-September season plays a crucial role in replenishing the country’s reservoirs, groundwater, power generation capacity, the overall economy and happiness and the people.
This year, however, its trajectory has been somewhat unusual.
While it covered a significant portion of north India, including Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and large parts of J&K ahead of the schedule, it was two weeks behind in western and central parts of India.
Meteorologists say Biparjoy impacted its progress over south India and adjoining western and central parts by absorbing most of the moisture, slowing down progress along the west coast. But the Bay of Bengal branch, which is responsible for bringing rain to northeast and eastern parts, has done well, they add.
El Nino and monsoon
While delay in the onset does not impact rainfall during a season, this year the monsoon is expected to be impacted by the El Nino factor this year. El Nino, the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon current and dry weather in India.
According to Skymet’s Mahesh Palawat, “the impact of El Nino will become noticeable around the first week of July. It will not be a drought-like situation but rains will be patchy and east and northwest India will receive less than normal rains. The effect will continue till the end of the season.”
In other words, the country on the whole may log ‘normal’ rainfall but there will be excess rains in some parts and deficiency in other areas.
The central and the south peninsula regions are expected to receive ‘normal’ rains at 94-106 percent of the long-period average. Rainfall between 96 and 104 percent is considered ‘normal’, below 90 percent ‘deficient’, between 90 and 95 percent ‘below normal’, between 105 and 110 per cent ‘above normal’ and above 100 percent ‘excess’.
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